Point Balance (PB) is a metric introduced by Stephen Shea and Christopher Baker in their 2013 book, Basketball Analytics. It measures how balanced a team is in scoring, a high score means the team has a high distribution of scoring vs a low score which tells us only a few players do most of the scoring.

It is calculated by the distribution of points divided by the distribution of minutes which are defined by :

\[D(pts) = - \sum p_i * log_2(p_i)\] \[D(min) = - \sum m_i * log_2(m_i)\]

where \(p_i \) and \(m_i \) are the total points and minutes for player i respectively, thus leading to

\[PB = \frac{D(pts)}{D(min)}\]

The goal of this article is to determine if the Point Balance of a team has any correlation with its success, or even just its offensive success. For every team from 2011-2020, I calculated its PB score and took the winning percentage, offensive rating, effective FG%, whether or not that team made the playoffs, and whether or not that team won the finals.

The overall average PB score for NBA teams over the last 10 years has been 0.955. The lowest PB score we saw was 0.862, by the 2011 ‘Big 3’ Miami Heat who ended up losing in the finals. The highest was 1.008 by the 2017 Philadelphia 76ers, who had a number of players suffer injuries throughout the season and went 28-54. The average score for playoff teams is 0.948 versus 0.963 for teams that missed the cut. Going further, those playoff teams that won the championship had an average of 0.939. So off the bat, it does seem to correlate at least a little bit. Below are the boxplots which help visualize the averages a little bit more, as well as the win percentage of teams plotted against their PB score.

This trend even coincides a little bit with how efficient the team’s offense is. In the 2 categories I looked at, offensive rating and effective field goal percentage, there proved to be a negative correlation.

Now obviously these aren’t the strongest correlations, shown by their R^2 values, but there is definitely a general trend. Teams led by the few generally do better than teams led by the many.

Look at the highest and lowest PB scores by year. Only 1 team made the playoffs having the highest PB score, the 2013 Denver Nuggets who had 5 guys scoring double digits and Ty Lawson leading the team at 16.7 ppg. They lost in the first round in 6 games. The minimum PB scores had an overall win percentage of 0.431. On the other end, not a single team missed the playoffs when they had the highest PB score, granted 6 of those years were the Thunder and 2 had Lebron. These scores had an overall win percentage of 0.641, yet interestingly, not a single one was able to seize the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

Highest

year team wins losses wpct ortg eFG% pb playoffs champions
2011 PHO 40 42 0.488 109.500 0.522 0.996 0.000 0.000
2012 PHO 33 33 0.500 106.200 0.499 0.984 0.000 0.000
2013 DEN 57 25 0.695 110.400 0.515 0.998 1.000 0.000
2014 DEN 36 46 0.439 106.000 0.497 0.982 0.000 0.000
2015 IND 38 44 0.463 103.500 0.484 0.992 0.000 0.000
2016 PHI 10 72 0.122 98.800 0.487 0.992 0.000 0.000
2017 PHI 28 54 0.341 103.200 0.501 1.008 0.000 0.000
2018 DET 39 43 0.476 107.200 0.512 0.992 0.000 0.000
2019 MIA 39 43 0.476 107.300 0.515 0.983 0.000 0.000
2020 DET 20 46 0.303 109.000 0.529 0.979 0.000 0.000

Lowest

year team wins losses wpct ortg eFG% pb playoffs champions
2011 MIA 58 24 0.707 111.700 0.524 0.862 1.000 0.000
2012 OKC 47 19 0.712 109.800 0.516 0.871 1.000 0.000
2013 OKC 60 22 0.732 112.400 0.527 0.886 1.000 0.000
2014 OKC 59 23 0.720 110.500 0.520 0.884 1.000 0.000
2015 CLE 53 29 0.646 111.100 0.520 0.915 1.000 0.000
2016 OKC 55 27 0.671 113.100 0.524 0.911 1.000 0.000
2017 OKC 47 35 0.573 108.300 0.500 0.906 1.000 0.000
2018 OKC 48 34 0.585 110.700 0.514 0.909 1.000 0.000
2019 HOU 53 29 0.646 115.500 0.542 0.900 1.000 0.000
2020 POR 35 39 0.473 113.700 0.533 0.908 1.000 0.000

So what does this mean? Would the 10-72 76ers have been better if they gave rookie Jahlil Okafor 10 more touches a game to increase his scoring? Of course not. But it shows that something that we all probably knew, stars run the NBA. Teams need guys that can and will take over a game to get wins. With this though, it’s not really a surprise that the lowest score never won the championship. Stars only get you so far. For example, the 2011 Heat who just got the Big 3 had the lowest score in the last 10 years. In the finals, when LeBron doesn’t play like his usual self it is hard to overcome that hole if there aren’t other players who can step up. Fast forward a year, a few guys like Mario Chalmers improved and the team brought in some new players like Shane Battier. Funnily enough, when they reached the finals, it was against a team in a similar position as the previous Heat team. 3 budding stars and not much other help. Looking at other championship teams, it’s no surprise what the high PB teams were. The 2014 Spurs, 2019 Raptors, and 2011 Mavericks are the top 3 respectively and were all considered great and deep ‘teams’ vs the star lead Heat and Warriors. So the formula to raise a trophy in the NBA is simple, get some stars, but also get some solid role players around those stars. That can’t be too hard right?

Champions

year team wins losses wpct ortg eFG% pb playoffs champions
2011 DAL 57 25 0.695 109.700 0.525 0.962 1.000 1.000
2012 MIA 46 20 0.697 106.600 0.505 0.901 1.000 1.000
2013 MIA 66 16 0.805 112.300 0.552 0.912 1.000 1.000
2014 SAS 62 20 0.756 110.500 0.537 0.966 1.000 1.000
2015 GSW 67 15 0.817 111.600 0.540 0.947 1.000 1.000
2016 CLE 57 25 0.695 110.900 0.524 0.946 1.000 1.000
2017 GSW 67 15 0.817 115.600 0.563 0.919 1.000 1.000
2018 GSW 58 24 0.707 113.600 0.569 0.939 1.000 1.000
2019 TOR 58 24 0.707 113.100 0.543 0.963 1.000 1.000
2020 LAL 52 19 0.732 112.000 0.542 0.931 1.000 1.000

Just for fun, here are the highest and lowest PB scores for each team over the last 10 years.

Highest

year team wins losses wpct ortg eFG% pb playoffs champions
2014 ATL 38 44 0.463 105.900 0.515 0.971 1.000 0.000
2015 BOS 40 42 0.488 104.700 0.489 0.985 1.000 0.000
2018 BRK 28 54 0.341 106.900 0.514 0.985 0.000 0.000
2018 CHI 27 55 0.329 103.800 0.497 0.984 0.000 0.000
2015 CHO 33 49 0.402 100.100 0.456 0.981 0.000 0.000
2011 CLE 19 63 0.232 102.200 0.472 0.967 0.000 0.000
2016 DAL 42 40 0.512 106.700 0.502 0.986 1.000 0.000
2013 DEN 57 25 0.695 110.400 0.515 0.998 1.000 0.000
2018 DET 39 43 0.476 107.200 0.512 0.992 0.000 0.000
2020 GSW 15 50 0.231 105.200 0.497 0.978 0.000 0.000
2012 HOU 34 32 0.515 105.500 0.492 0.975 0.000 0.000
2015 IND 38 44 0.463 103.500 0.484 0.992 0.000 0.000
2017 LAC 51 31 0.622 112.700 0.537 0.970 1.000 0.000
2015 LAL 21 61 0.256 103.400 0.473 0.983 0.000 0.000
2018 MEM 22 60 0.268 104.500 0.500 0.977 0.000 0.000
2019 MIA 39 43 0.476 107.300 0.515 0.983 0.000 0.000
2011 MIL 35 47 0.427 101.600 0.467 0.986 0.000 0.000
2013 MIN 31 51 0.378 102.900 0.473 0.978 0.000 0.000
2012 NOP 21 45 0.318 100.900 0.476 0.982 0.000 0.000
2015 NYK 17 65 0.207 99.900 0.470 0.983 0.000 0.000
2020 OKC 44 28 0.611 110.800 0.530 0.936 1.000 0.000
2013 ORL 20 62 0.244 101.600 0.485 0.972 0.000 0.000
2017 PHI 28 54 0.341 103.200 0.501 1.008 0.000 0.000
2011 PHO 40 42 0.488 109.500 0.522 0.996 0.000 0.000
2019 POR 53 29 0.646 114.700 0.528 0.951 1.000 0.000
2011 SAC 24 58 0.293 103.500 0.480 0.988 0.000 0.000
2015 SAS 55 27 0.671 108.500 0.517 0.978 1.000 0.000
2013 TOR 34 48 0.415 105.900 0.488 0.968 0.000 0.000
2018 UTA 48 34 0.585 108.400 0.527 0.971 1.000 0.000
2016 WAS 41 41 0.500 105.300 0.511 0.981 0.000 0.000

Lowest

year team wins losses wpct ortg eFG% pb playoffs champions
2020 ATL 20 47 0.299 107.200 0.515 0.933 0.000 0.000
2020 BOS 48 24 0.667 113.300 0.531 0.938 1.000 0.000
2011 BRK 49 33 0.598 108.200 0.498 0.942 1.000 0.000
2011 CHI 62 20 0.756 108.300 0.501 0.928 1.000 0.000
2018 CHO 36 46 0.439 109.400 0.508 0.951 0.000 0.000
2015 CLE 53 29 0.646 111.100 0.520 0.915 1.000 0.000
2014 DAL 49 33 0.598 111.200 0.526 0.953 1.000 0.000
2011 DEN 50 32 0.610 112.300 0.526 0.966 1.000 0.000
2019 DET 41 41 0.500 109.000 0.509 0.932 1.000 0.000
2019 GSW 57 25 0.695 115.900 0.565 0.911 1.000 0.000
2019 HOU 53 29 0.646 115.500 0.542 0.900 1.000 0.000
2011 IND 37 45 0.451 104.800 0.486 0.957 1.000 0.000
2012 LAC 40 26 0.606 108.500 0.502 0.921 1.000 0.000
2012 LAL 41 25 0.621 106.000 0.491 0.902 1.000 0.000
2017 MEM 43 39 0.524 107.700 0.491 0.946 1.000 0.000
2011 MIA 58 24 0.707 111.700 0.524 0.862 1.000 0.000
2018 MIL 44 38 0.537 109.800 0.531 0.912 1.000 0.000
2017 MIN 31 51 0.378 110.800 0.511 0.909 0.000 0.000
2018 NOP 48 34 0.585 109.600 0.541 0.918 1.000 0.000
2013 NYK 54 28 0.659 111.100 0.515 0.929 1.000 0.000
2012 OKC 47 19 0.712 109.800 0.516 0.871 1.000 0.000
2011 ORL 52 30 0.634 107.900 0.521 0.942 1.000 0.000
2019 PHI 51 31 0.622 112.600 0.532 0.936 1.000 0.000
2019 PHO 19 63 0.232 105.900 0.514 0.939 0.000 0.000
2020 POR 35 39 0.473 113.700 0.533 0.908 1.000 0.000
2014 SAC 28 54 0.341 105.700 0.484 0.914 0.000 0.000
2017 SAS 61 21 0.744 111.100 0.524 0.944 1.000 0.000
2017 TOR 51 31 0.622 112.300 0.517 0.928 1.000 0.000
2011 UTA 39 43 0.476 108.100 0.498 0.950 0.000 0.000
2017 WAS 49 33 0.598 111.200 0.528 0.937 1.000 0.000

The full code for scraping the data, analyzing it, plus the output images and tables can be found on my Github account here. All stats were scraped from basketball-reference.com.